Brexit’s Potential Impact on Aviation: Will Brexit spell prosperity for Britain or economic hardship? By the end of March, the British Parliament may trigger the “point of no return” in the UK’s exit process from the 28-nation European Union (EU). The aviation industry is as much at a loss to understand the full impact of this as any other industry right now.
On June 23, 2016, the UK held a referendum whereby 52 percent of British voters decided to exit the EU. The referendum itself has no real effect, so the British Parliament advanced the bill in the House of Commons on February 1, 2017. This decision to move Brexit negotiations forward will usher in more rounds of parliamentary action. The House of Lords, the upper chamber of the British Parliament will have to vote on the bill before it can become law.
Assuming the decision is affirmed, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the mechanism by which a member state formally declares its intention to leave the EU will take effect. Upon formalizing Article 50, the UK and EU will have two years – perhaps longer if an extension is negotiated – to settle the terms of the withdrawal.
Regardless, it appears that the UK will opt for a “hard Brexit,” taking no half measures; sending no mixed messages. British Prime Minister Teresa May has made this point crystal clear. With the UK bowing out of the European single market, opponents of Brexit paint a bleak scenario post-exit – one that maintains the current air of uncertainty for commerce and economic growth for a prolonged period. Proponents, however, tout the UK’s ability to forge lucrative trade partnerships with numerous countries outside of the EU and a return to economic independence, out from under “crushing“ EU regulations and legislation.
In light of all this posturing from both camps, some hard-and-fast questions remain: How will all this impact aviation in Europe? Will the UK have to replace the current European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) regulations with new ones of its own? With all these operational and regulatory questions in play, it’s easy to see that aviation could be hugely affected – and negatively, at least initially.
At this point, it’s unclear if the UK will remain a part of the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA), which is comprised of EU states, Norway, Iceland, and non-EU Balkan states. To retain membership in ECAA, will the UK have to cede major concessions regarding technical rules and economic integration? One potential roadblock remains: the UK would have to agree to “a close framework of economic cooperation” in order to remain part of ECAA. With the UK’s hard line on open movement of labor across its borders, it’s difficult to see an easy agreement. The alternative could be the UK negotiates its own open skies agreements, like Switzerland has.
The mounting uncertainty is creating massive headaches for aviation in the UK already – companies cannot plan for the future with any degree of confidence; they cannot budget accordingly or forecast profitability. It seems likely that the UK will be forced to give up much (or all) of its air transport and air traffic rights that were negotiated by the EU with non-EU countries. Additionally, the UK will have to decide whether to continue extending those rights to EU and non-EU countries conducting operations into and within the UK.
By its very nature, the aviation industry is highly regulated for safety, air traffic management, security, and environmental measures. Some also protect and maintain competitiveness. These regulations are often based on agreements reached between governments. They may be pan-global, like those imposed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), under the auspices of the United Nations (UN). At a minimum, regulations must be agreed upon by the participating parties that determine the traffic rights.
To compound the issue, the UK government is not offering much guidance for aviation. And with the UK being the largest member nation to ever leave the EU, these are uncharted waters. It’s becoming clear that British aviators may be forced to withdraw its EU-aviation associations and memberships.
For now, speculation rules the day. And the answers may not come until after the Brexit negotiations are completed. Plus, the general feeling is that UK operators will experience an increase in operating costs as a result. For more insight into the potential fallout from Brexit on aviation, read the International Air Transportation Association (IATA) report, “The Impact of ‘BREXIT’ on UK Air Transport.”
Visit UAS Blog for more updates as developments continue to unfold.
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Mitch Launius
Instructor Pilot for 30 West IP
Mitch is the CEO of 30 West IP where he is also an instructor providing pilot training on international procedures. With an illustrious career of over 34 years in the cockpit, Mitch has acquired over 13,000 hours of flight time flying worldwide, with over 9,000 hours of this in Challenger and Gulfstream aircraft. He is an experienced safety officer and was also an IS-BAO project manager for a fortune 500 flight department. He has presented on Safety and Operations topics at the NBAA International Operators Conference and the Canadian Business Aviation Association Convention and is currently on the NBAA International Operators Committee and serves as the North Atlantic Regional Lead. Mitch is also a member of an FAA working group on General Aviation International Authorizations and Tabletop Exercises (GIATE). He was recently selected to represent IBAC as a member of the ICAO Personal Training and Licensing Panel (PTLP) and was also recently named as a 2020 recipient of the NBAA Tony Kern Professionalism in Aviation Award for his contribution to the business aviation community.
Henry ‘Duke’ LeDuc
Director Of Operations, Americas, UAS International Trip Support
Duke has been a dearly respected member of UAS Americas team and the UAS global family for more than five years. A safety-oriented, FAA-licensed aircraft dispatcher, he oversees all of the operations of the elite UAS Operations Team. With twenty-five years of experience in aviation overall with more than fifteen years of experience in international flight planning and VVIP trip coordination, he is responsible for the development of the dispatch training program and involved in the strategic development of UAS Americas. With a myriad of rich aviation experience behind him, he has extensive experience in worldwide operations with both corporate and charter environments, including seven years as Operations/Dispatch Manager in an industry-leading, Fortune 500, IS-BAO Stage III Certified corporate flight department. Duke is frequently asked shares his knowledge at major industry events and is currently serving on the NBAA’s International Operators Conference (IOC) Planning Committee.
Dudley King
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Dudley is the Founder and President of FlightBridge, which he established in 2011 and has been focused on technology solutions for the private aviation industry since 2006. Since he graduated from Dartmouth in 1988, he has worked with an array of companies listed anywhere from VentureWire to the Fortune 100. A rare blend of executive, entrepreneur, and consultant, Dudley’s executive roles have included acting CIO positions for several companies and tech advisory services to CEOs trying to rebuild their technology organizations or looking for an external, professional point of view. Highly skilled at deeply understanding his customer’s business challenges and drawing from a long and varied experience in information technology services, Dudley excels at designing technology solutions to solve their problems.
Dr. Paulo Alves
Global Medical Director, Aviation Health, Medaire
Paulo has extensive experience in medical advisory in the aviation industry. As a cardiologist, he provides technical guidance and analysis for MedAire’s MedLink medical advisory service and is MedAire’s liaison with civil aviation regulators and industry associations. Paulo worked with Varig Brazilian Airlines for 23 years, 10 of which were spent as General Medical Manager. A member of the MedAire Medical Advisory Board, Paulo is also President of the Ibero-American Aerospace Medical Association, a member of the International Academy of Aerospace Medicine, a member of the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) Safety Committee, a Fellow of the Aerospace Medical Association (AsMA), and a Fellow of the Civil Aviation Medical Association. Throughout his illustrious career, Paulo has held industry leadership roles including Chairperson of the AsMA’s Air Transport Medicine Committee, President of the Airlines Medical Directors Association, President of the Brazilian Society of Aerospace Medicine and was a member of the IATA Medical Advisory Group from 2002 to 2006.
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